Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Nov 11 2022 16:17:26

ACUS01 KWNS 111617
SWODY1
SPC AC 111616

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1016 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2022

Valid 111630Z - 121200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NC/VA...AND THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH TX...

....SUMMARY...
A couple of tornadoes are possible through mid-late afternoon over
parts of the Carolinas and Virginia.  Large hail will be the main
severe-weather threat in south Texas this afternoon/evening.

....NC/VA through mid-late afternoon...
The remnants of Nicole will accelerate northeastward and weaken by
tonight over the Mid-Atlantic.  In the interim, there will still be
the potential for broken convective bands from NC into VA through
the afternoon as some low-level destabilization occurs in cloud
breaks.  Curved low-level hodographs with effective SRH at or above
200 m2/s2 will be maintained northeast of the remnant circulation
center through the afternoon, and a couple of tornadoes will be
possible with supercells in the convective bands.

....Central/south TX through this evening...
Slightly elevated strong-severe storms are ongoing across central TX
on the immediate cool side of a surface cold front.  This front will
continue to move southeastward to the coastal plain by this evening,
as an associated midlevel trough progresses eastward over the
southern Plains.  The threat for surface-based storms will increase
some this afternoon from roughly San Antonio to Corpus Christi, just
ahead of the front in a zone of ascent with a lead mid-upper speed
max over the Big Bend (as evidenced by the warm sector convection
over Real County as of 16z).  Long/relatively straight hodographs,
midlevel lapse rates greater than 7 C/km, and MLCAPE of 1500-2000
J/kg will support the potential for a few supercells capable of
producing isolated very large hail (2 inch diameter or larger) and
damaging gusts from early afternoon until the storms move off the
middle TX coast by late evening.

...Thompson/Weinman.. 11/11/2022

$$

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