Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1942
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Nov 11 2022 10:36:51

ACUS11 KWNS 111036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111036=20
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-111130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1942
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0436 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2022

Areas affected...Carolina coastal plain and piedmont...south-central
and southeast VA

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 111036Z - 111130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A new tornado watch will likely be needed for the Carolina
coastal plain and piedmont.  The risk for a tornado may extend as
far north as south-central and southeast VA through midday.

DISCUSSION...Model guidance indicates the continued influx of a
moist, maritime tropical airmass into the Carolina Piedmont and
southeastern/eastern VA as a maritime cold front advances
north-northwest over southern and eastern VA this morning.  Forecast
soundings show a relatively long period of favorable buoyancy and
shear over central and eastern NC today, but this favorable zone
will extend from northeast SC and eventually into southern/eastern
VA.  Modest diurnal heating amidst thinning clouds/cloud breaks will
boost MLCAPE into the 500-1000 J/kg range (locally higher).=20
Enlarged hodographs juxtaposed with pockets of heating and rich
low-level moisture will yield a large area favorable for potential
supercells.  A tornado risk will likely accompany any supercell
within the warm sector.  If a linear cluster of quasi-discrete
supercells develops in a band later today, a mesoscale area of
locally higher tornado threat could materialize.

...Smith/Edwards.. 11/11/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-ga6QiyFsNrVTssd2K8METlb9zeOB47KWmNjD-zvIrBtP00-_dexBSPtd6FNxCxTiz5f9TIZU=
xjW2cR_RPBO6KC1BjI$   for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   34058086 34858082 36667932 37727767 37517558 35117517
            32627949 34058086=20


=3D =3D =3D
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