Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Nov 11 2022 07:01:25

ACUS03 KWNS 110701
SWODY3
SPC AC 110700

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2022

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Sunday through Sunday night.

....Discussion...
Substantive further amplification within one branch of westerlies
across the northern mid-latitude Pacific into adjacent portions of
North of America is forecast during this period, including an
increasingly prominent mid-level ridge near the British Columbia
coast.  To the east and southeast of this feature, several short
wave perturbations likely will dig within branching downstream flow
across the Canadian Prairies, U.S. Great Basin and southern Rockies.
It appears that a mid-level low will begin to evolve near the
central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, while a significant
downstream perturbation emerging from the Ohio Valley supports
surface cyclogenesis across the Canadian Maritimes vicinity.  As
this occurs, a trailing cold front is forecast to stall across the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico into central Florida, while accelerating
east of the remainder of the Atlantic Seaboard.

While cold surface ridging remains entrenched across much of the
U.S., southerly return flow above the stable near surface air
probably will contribute to moistening off the Gulf of Mexico,
through the lower Rio Grande Valley into portions of the southern
Great Plains.  It appears that this will remain mostly modest to
weak in magnitude, but it may become sufficient to support
increasing convection and embedded thunderstorms, in the presence of
strengthening large-scale ascent and steepening mid-level lapse
rates across the Texas Panhandle vicinity by 12Z Monday.  It appears
that this will be supported by forcing associated with a digging
mid-level jet streak, which may also contribute to convection
capable of producing lightning in a swath across and east-southeast
of the Four Corners late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

...Kerr.. 11/11/2022

$$

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