Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Nov 10 2022 20:02:47 ACUS01 KWNS 102002 SWODY1 SPC AC 102000 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Thu Nov 10 2022 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST... ....SUMMARY... A few tornadoes remain possible across eastern Georgia and South Carolina, and possibly overnight into southern North Carolina. Isolated damaging gusts are possible this afternoon across parts of the Upper Mississippi to Lower Missouri Valleys. ....20Z Update... Primary change was to introduce low severe hail probabilities to southwest Texas, where elevated storms may develop before 12z Friday. Steepening lapse rates, moderate elevated buoyancy, and strong shear through the cloud-bearing layer could support some hail if storms develop before 12z Friday. Otherwise, frontal progression-related adjustments were made across the Upper Midwest/Upper Mississippi Valley. ...Guyer.. 11/10/2022 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2022/ ....FL/GA/Carolinas... Tropical Storm Nicole continues to affect much of FL. So far, convection over the eastern semi-circle has not shown significant intensity, with only occasional and transient rotating structures off of the coast near JAX. This is near a surface baroclinic zone that extends northeastward just off the GA/SC/NC coast. Most model solutions suggest this boundary will drift inland this afternoon, resulting in at least a conditional risk of surface-based deep convection. Shear profiles will be quite strong throughout this area, possibly resulting in a few tornadoes this afternoon and tonight if convective trends increase. The threat farther inland will be limited by northeasterly surface winds, dewpoints only in the 60s, and dense cloud cover maintaining a generally stable surface airmass. ....Upper MS Valley... A very strong surface cold front is sweeping eastward across parts of MN/IA/KS, and will affect much of the upper MS Valley through the day. Dewpoints in the 60s and partial daytime heating will lead to sufficient CAPE (generally around 750 J/kg) ahead of the front for a line of showers and low-topped thunderstorms by mid-afternoon. Wind fields and forcing are strong, suggesting a risk of gusty/damaging winds in the more robust cells along the line. Morning CAM solutions differ on the extent/intensity of the convective line, and given the weak CAPE, there is doubt whether the line can become sufficiently organized to pose an organized damaging wind threat. Therefore will maintain MRGL risk. However, an upgrade to SLGT is possible later today if mesoscale trends show the line strengthening more than anticipated. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .