Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1932
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Nov 10 2022 10:36:14

ACUS11 KWNS 101036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101035=20
FLZ000-101300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1932
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0435 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2022

Areas affected...northeast FL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 101035Z - 101300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The initial signs of weakly organized convective structure
are beginning to approach the coast.  Trends will be monitored early
this morning for the potential need for a small tornado watch in
northeast FL.

DISCUSSION...KMLB radar imagery is showing more coherent and less
brief/transitory convective structure over the shelf waters 30-40 mi
east of the coast as of 530am EST.  This convection is on the
northwest tip of an arc of convection (producing lightning)
extending southeastward to the northeast of the Bahamas.  The charge
separation resulting in lightning and cooler cloud tops indicate
more vigorous updrafts currently present over the Atlantic but
slowly approaching northeast FL/GA/southern SC.  The KJAX VAD shows
an intensifying low-level wind field in the 1-3 km AGL layer from
430am EST to 530am EST.  As a greater buoyancy envelope moves up and
inland over the next couple of hours, it is possible a weak/brief
tornado risk develops.  However, this conditional risk will depend
on weak supercell structure developing first and likely over the
adjacent waters and moving westward into the immediate coastal
areas.

...Smith/Edwards.. 11/10/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-gWOr4NcQPcskD8lTuPJEWPz2FkNHylyZTgDw7-P5aJxaHe9RnMBDg42I6LsFnO5mZEGj2MER=
aqfTBLuJgxmEdXLpJs$   for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...JAX...

LAT...LON   29948017 30018126 29758147 29448144 29288102 29287984
            29948017=20


=3D =3D =3D
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