Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Nov 10 2022 09:55:41

ACUS48 KWNS 100955
SWOD48
SPC AC 100954

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2022

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

....DISCUSSION...
A cold front should extend off the East Coast, across the FL
Peninsula, and into the Gulf of Mexico on Day 4/Sunday. Thunderstorm
potential across the CONUS should remain quite low behind this front
on Sunday. By Day 5/Monday, some attempt at low-level moisture
return may occur along/near the TX/LA Gulf Coast, as a
southern-stream shortwave trough develops across the southern Plains
and lower MS Valley. However, it appears unlikely that substantial
inland return of this low-level moisture will occur, which should
limit the potential for organized severe convection.

Some guidance suggests that the shortwave trough will continue
eastward across the lower MS Valley/Southeast on Day 6/Tuesday.
Better low-level moisture and weak instability are currently
forecast to remain off the AL/FL Gulf Coast, with little severe
potential evident at this time through the rest of the extended
forecast period.

...Gleason.. 11/10/2022

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