Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Nov 10 2022 08:32:26

FOUS30 KWBC 100832
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
331 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

Day 1
Valid 01Z Thu Nov 10 2022 - 12Z Thu Nov 10 2022

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST...=20
=20
....Portions of the Southeast...=20
Nicole will continue to be the focus for organized moderate to
heavy rainfall as it moves from the Florida peninsula towards the
Big Bend region by Thursday evening and northward into portions of
the Southeast U.S. by Friday morning.  Slight adjustments were
made in response to QPF due to guidance/NHC track changes from day
shift.  Storm total QPF values of 3 to 5 inches with isolated
maximum values of 8 inches remain in the cards in parts of Florida
that tapers down to 1 to 3 inches farther inland.  Given dry
antecedent conditions...several inches of rain will be more
beneficial than destructive although flooding/flash flooding can
not be entirely ruled out should the duration of heavy rainfall
rates persist due to the storm making a pivot...or heavy rainfall
occurs in an urban environment or region of poor drainage.  Any
rivers swollen by rainfall from Ian a few weeks ago may be more
prone than surrounding areas as well.=20=20=20
=20
....Upper Midwest...=20
Minimal change was needed to the inherited Marginal Risk area.=20
The strong low over the Plains and the stationary front over the
Marginal Risk area will continue to wring out the 1.25" PWATs and
highly anomalous moisture over the area, with RAP guidance
suggesting MU CAPE of at least 500 J/kg.  Some of the guidance
continues to advertise spotty 2-3" amounts. The Marginal Risk will
primarily focus on the first half of the period, with much of the
precipitation both over and changing over to snow by Thursday
night.=20
=20
Roth/Bann=20


Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5C-3_p7CuaeiqdZvucs-9xWBGNOYWnRnyqKuLqejLn07=
TeitOpov611-FRIyAUCrohC1KjiMnmY6x-tUJsd0U43Cyls$=20=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5C-3_p7CuaeiqdZvucs-9xWBGNOYWnRnyqKuLqejLn07=
TeitOpov611-FRIyAUCrohC1KjiMnmY6x-tUJsd0OtNShA0$=20=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5C-3_p7CuaeiqdZvucs-9xWBGNOYWnRnyqKuLqejLn07=
TeitOpov611-FRIyAUCrohC1KjiMnmY6x-tUJsd0Fng2fnk$=20=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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