Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Nov 10 2022 07:00:44 ACUS02 KWNS 100700 SWODY2 SPC AC 100658 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2022 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...NORTH CAROLINA...AND VIRGINIA... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing both tornadoes and isolated damaging winds should occur Friday across parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic. ....Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic... According to the latest forecast from the NHC, Nicole should be located over central GA at the start of the period Friday morning. A transition to post-tropical should occur through the day as the surface low races northeastward across the western Carolinas and eventually the Mid-Atlantic. An upper trough initially over the central states is forecast to continue moving eastward, while Nicole's mid-level circulation transitions to a shortwave trough while advancing quickly northeastward across the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast through the period. Rich low-level moisture, characterized by at least upper 60s surface dewpoints, is expected to spread inland ahead of the surface low from the central Carolinas into southern portions of the Mid-Atlantic through Friday evening. Strong low-level flow associated with a 45-55+ kt southerly low-level jet will be present over these regions as well. Corresponding enlargement of low-level hodographs is anticipated, with effective SRH likely reaching at least 200-300 m2/s2. Modest diurnal heating of the moist low-level airmass should support the development of weak instability, with MLCAPE reaching up to around 500 J/kg. Current expectations are for low-topped supercells capable of producing both tornadoes and isolated damaging winds to spread gradually northward through the day from the Carolinas into southern/central VA and vicinity. The northward extent of the tornado risk across the Mid-Atlantic appears increasingly marginal with time Friday evening as boundary-layer instability becomes quite weak. But, low to mid 60s surface dewpoints will attempt to reach as far north as southern New England. ....Central into Coastal/Deep South Texas... Elevated thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Friday morning across parts of central TX along/near a cold front. The southern portion of a large-scale upper trough will advance eastward over much of central/south TX through the period. A surface cold front should continue moving south-southeastward over this region. Low-level flow is forecast to remain weak. But, strong deep-layer shear around 40-50 kt should be present, owing to the enhanced mid/upper-level westerly winds at the base of the upper trough. This shear will likely act to organize updrafts. Any thunderstorms that can develop along or just ahead of the cold front may pose an isolated threat for both large hail and damaging winds, as they spread generally east-southeastward through Friday evening. Some of this activity may acquire supercell characteristics. Have expanded the Marginal Risk for hail/wind to include more of central/coastal TX based on latest guidance. ...Gleason.. 11/10/2022 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .