Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1931
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Nov 10 2022 07:15:10

ACUS11 KWNS 100715
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100714=20
FLZ000-100945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1931
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2022

Areas affected...Cape Canaveral vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 100714Z - 100945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Cellular convective structure will likely move ashore over
the next couple of hours as Hurricane Nicole moves west and inland
over the eastern part of the FL Peninsula.  A convectively enhanced
gust and/or a brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...KMLB radar imagery shows the center of Hurricane Nicole
approximately 20 mi east of Vero Beach with some intermittent
cellular structure observed in a diffuse convective band located to
the north of the north eyewall.  Surface analysis indicates lower to
mid 70s deg F dewpoints have penetrated the immediate coast and the
highest theta-e is located near the Vero Beach area to the immediate
west of the eyewall.  Forecast soundings indicate lower 70s
dewpoints support marginal buoyancy (250-500 J/kg MLCAPE).  Enlarged
hodographs are evident in the KMLB VAD as 70+ kt east-northeasterly
1 km AGL flow contributes to strong speed shear in the surface to 1
km layer.  Will continue to monitor convective trends for the
possibility of an uptick in more organized cellular structure over
the next couple of hours.  A tornado watch will likely be needed
if/once better organized convective evolution becomes apparent.

...Smith/Edwards.. 11/10/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!64B0avZYre-K3jxshsxuCZ4gGw_-oTzCGR87oeU4Ha5HJhfLX-XhxWdkKG_UdS5UKlA4RK5o_=
flRFmDZH8GCz7ECsuw$   for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...

LAT...LON   28448073 28718016 28787942 28497902 28407956 28318021
            28098063 28178083 28448073=20


=3D =3D =3D
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