Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Nov 10 2022 05:49:43

ACUS01 KWNS 100549
SWODY1
SPC AC 100548

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CST Wed Nov 09 2022

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE NICOLE...

....SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes are expected during the day from northern Florida
into eastern Georgia and South Carolina, and possibly overnight into
southern North Carolina. Isolated strong wind gusts will be possible
during the afternoon across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley
and vicinity.

....Southeast...
Tropical Cyclone Nicole is forecast to move northwestward across
central and northern FL during the day, curving northward into
Georgia into Friday morning. As this occurs, surface winds will veer
to the right of the center track, resulting in rising dewpoints and
instability from northern FL into the Carolinas.

The initial tornado threat is forecast from northern FL into
southeast GA early today, when dewpoints rise into the lower 70s F
and hodographs enlarge with over 300 m2/s2 effective SRH forecast.
This will favor rotating storms and brief tornadoes within the
stronger bands.
Farther north, the air mass will initially be cool across the
Carolinas, with northeasterly surface winds. As winds become
oriented onshore, dewpoints will rise, with favorable SBCAPE
generally after 18Z over NC. Effective SRH may average near 300
m2/s2 here as well, which will conditionally favor TC supercells
with tornado risk. Overnight, the threat may persist across much of
NC, though much will depend on the degree of SBCAPE present at that
time.

....Upper MS Valley...
A deepening upper low will shift from the Dakotas into northern MN
through the period, with intense midlevel jet max moving from SD
into MN. At the surface, a cold front will push rapidly eastward,
from near the MN/WI border into northern MO by 21Z. A narrow plume
of near-60 F dewpoints will exist ahead of the front, but heating
will be quite limited. As such, SBCAPE is forecast to be weak, with
cool boundary-layer temperatures. In addition, given the tilt of the
upper wave, little cooling aloft will occur at the longitude of the
cold front. Therefore, although wind fields will be quite strong
with deep-layer shear over 50 kt, storms may be relatively weak with
sporadic wind gusts or even a brief/weak tornado from eastern IA
into WI.

...Jewell/Thornton.. 11/10/2022

$$

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