Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1930
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Nov 10 2022 05:01:10

ACUS11 KWNS 100501
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100500=20
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-101100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1930
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 PM CST Wed Nov 09 2022

Areas affected...Far Southeast Montana...Southern North
Dakota...Northern South Dakota

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 100500Z - 101100Z

SUMMARY...Snowfall rates are expected to reach one inch per hour
from far southeast Montana eastward across much of southern North
Dakota and southward into parts of northwest and north-central South
Dakota. A mix of sleet, snow and freezing rain will be possible
across parts of southeast North Dakota and northeast South Dakota.

DISCUSSION...An upper-level low over the northern Rockies will move
eastward into the northern High Plains tonight. Mid-level heights
will remain diffluent ahead of the system in the northern Plains, as
a 75 to 90 knot jet noses into the region from the southwest. As the
upper-level low approaches, isentropic lift will increase across
parts of the northern Plains. In response, precipitation in the form
of moderate to heavy snow will develop and move northeastward across
the region. The heaviest snowfall is expected to develop just ahead
of the upper-level low track in the left exit region of the
mid-level jet, where lift will become maximized between 09Z and 12Z.
Snowfall rates are expected to reach or exceed one inch per hour in
some areas during this timeframe.

Further to the east, RAP forecast soundings from Aberdeen to Fargo
show a warm nose in the 700 to 800 mb layer, with surface
temperatures in the mid to upper 20s F. Showers that form within
this temperature profile should be associated with mixed
precipitation. Sleet, freezing rain and snow will be possible,
especially later tonight as the band of stronger lift moves through.

...Broyles/Grams.. 11/10/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4Z_BMnDMVAZe45KaXCNuya5UP4zG3sYA9aAfKHXMkFMoPbGWU2MBUZZvlbVOnYvFwAKc5bsup=
iF8Liurzb6KA7EAZbo$   for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   44850232 44690126 44789943 45019834 45439726 45889685
            46589655 47199656 47589687 47659718 47649799 47499996
            47260213 47020398 46790493 46370503 45990490 45670453
            45270375 45000291 44850232=20


=3D =3D =3D
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