Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Nov 10 2022 00:38:41

ACUS01 KWNS 100038
SWODY1
SPC AC 100036

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 PM CST Wed Nov 09 2022

Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated tropical cyclone tornadoes may develop tonight over parts
of the eastern Florida Peninsula. Isolated damaging thunderstorm
gusts may occur before dawn tomorrow over parts of the central
Plains.

....Florida...
Nicole is forecast to continue moving northwestward toward the east
coast of Florida, and this will result in rising dewpoints along the
coast. Low-level shear will also increase north of the center track,
and rotating storms may eventually develop after 06Z tonight. As
such, will maintain a 5% tornado risk for isolated embedded
supercells within developing convective bands.

....Southern NE into northern KS...
A cold front is forecast to surge southeastward across NE and into
KS tonight, primarily after 06Z as low pressure shifts from western
KS this evening into MN by 12Z Thursday. Upper 50s to near 60 F
dewpoints are in place ahead of the cold front, but this will only
yield minimal instability as the cooling aloft with the upper trough
remains behind the front. A strong southwesterly low-level jet will
impinge on the cold front tonight, enhancing low-level lift.
Forecast soundings show around 500 J/kg MUCAPE, with strong shear
profiles. This conditionally favors marginally severe storms.
However, given the linear forcing mechanism, time of night, and a
capping inversion with the main wave well to the west, the overall
threat appears low.

...Jewell.. 11/10/2022

$$

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