Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Nov 09 2022 22:07:48 AWUS01 KWNH 092207 FFGMPD FLZ000-100358- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1119 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 506 PM EST Wed Nov 09 2022 Areas affected...much of the eastern Florida Peninsula Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 092158Z - 100358Z Summary...The approach of TC Nicole will gradually result in an increase in heavy rainfall initially along east coastal areas of the Florida Peninsula beginning around 00Z. Banded convection near the center will pose a risk of 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates, posing a flash flood risk especially in urbanized/sensitive areas along the I-95 corridor. Discussion...Tropical Storm Nicole continues to slowly approach the eastern coast of Florida currently. The storm has resulted in scattered, moderate rainfall across roughly the eastern third of the Florida Peninsula along with a few low-end MRMS Flash responses particularly in urbanized areas along the I-95 corridor. The stronger surface-based instability still resides about 100 miles offshore within the northeastern quadrant of Nicole. The modest instability has kept the heaviest of rainfall well offshore through the afternoon. Nicole continues to move westward, and a couple of potential scenarios point to locally heavy rainfall potential materializing along the I-95 corridor in eastern/southeastern Florida especially after 00Z: 1) banded convection near the center of Nicole (most evident via radar imagery from Bermuda), which should spread heavier rain rates into coastal areas due to localized repeating/convective training and 2) more scattered, yet banded convection that should materialize near and northeast of the center as a substantially more buoyant, moist airmass migrates inland and flow around Nicole fosters westward-moving bands of deep convection. At least 1 inch/hr rain rates should materialize within any banded convection, and 2-3 inch/hr rain rates should be supported as 2000 J/kg SBCAPE and 2-2.4 inch PW values spread inland. The flash flood scenario should materialize in the 00-03Z timeframe at the earliest, but steadily increase thereafter. Cook=20 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8TVDHDwT6LWzP-lqJF-zaxtvYx7nVnpsaylC7jquZZExBoA0NcWlE5-7Ot40fhENJvEn= COlOvzrs6S8Av1SmRc85xCU$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 29078093 28678018 26977986 25907974 26048040=20 27448115 28398128=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .