Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Nov 09 2022 19:48:09

ACUS01 KWNS 091948
SWODY1
SPC AC 091946

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CST Wed Nov 09 2022

Valid 092000Z - 101200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA...MAINLY LATE TONIGHT...

....SUMMARY...
A tornado threat is expected to develop this evening and persist
tonight over parts of eastern Florida. Isolated damaging
thunderstorm gusts may occur before dawn tomorrow in parts of the
central Plains.

....Synopsis...
Tropical Storm Nicole continues to move westward on a track very
near the 15Z NHC forecast. Therefore, no changes were needed to the
outlook area across Florida and far southeast Georgia for this
evening into the overnight period.

The 18Z HRRR continues to maintain a line of shallow convection
early Thursday morning across southern Nebraska and northern Kansas.
Despite weak instability, a moderately strong wind field could
support an isolated damaging wind gust.

...Bentley.. 11/09/2022

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Wed Nov 09 2022/

....Eastern FL...
Tropical Storm Nicole will track eastward and approach the east
coast of the FL Peninsula tonight.  As the center approaches,
surface winds along the east-central/northeast coast will back to
easterly and eventually southeasterly, aiding in the transport of
rich low-level moisture and high theta-e air.  This, along with
rapidly strengthening shear profiles, will result in an increasing
risk of a few tornadoes.  The threat is not expected to begin until
after midnight tonight.

....NE/KS...
A strong surface boundary extends from eastern CO into central NE
today.  A deep surface low is expected to form this afternoon in
eastern CO as an upper trough approaches, then track eastward along
the boundary tonight.  Most model solutions suggest a narrow band of
shallow convection will form in vicinity of this low as it tracks
eastward across parts of southern NE/northern KS.  Instability will
be weak, but perhaps sufficient for locally gusty/damaging winds
along the line - mainly after midnight.

$$

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