Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Nov 09 2022 17:26:08 ACUS02 KWNS 091726 SWODY2 SPC AC 091724 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Wed Nov 09 2022 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN/COASTAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...AND PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...... ....SUMMARY... A few tornadoes should occur Thursday into Thursday night over parts of Florida into coastal Georgia and the Carolinas in association with Tropical Cyclone Nicole. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms also appear possible across portions of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest, with damaging winds the main threat. ....Florida into Georgia and the Carolinas... The latest track from the NHC shows Tropical Cyclone Nicole over the central Florida peninsula Thursday morning. The track shows a northeastward turn through the day and the remnant surface low somewhere near central Georgia by 12Z Friday. This inland penetration of the center of the cyclone should allow a warm/moist warm sector to advance well inland across northeast Florida, eastern Georgia, and the eastern Carolinas. Low 70s dewpoints are likely with temperatures in the mid 70s which should be sufficient for 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Despite the weakening surface low, guidance suggest the 925-850mb flow should maintain intensity of 50-55 knots through the day Thursday. In addition, some guidance suggests the low-level jet may strengthen after 06Z Friday morning as the tropical remnants start to interact with the larger trough to the west and low-level flow veers. At minimum, this should maintain a tornado threat through Thursday night/Friday into southeastern North Carolina. Additionally, it could potentially increase tornadic potential, particularly if surface winds can remain backed northeast of the cyclone while the low-level jet strengthens/veers, enlarging hodographs. Therefore, the slight risk has been expanded to include southeast North Carolina, primarily for the 06Z to 12Z period. The highest tornado potential will likely be near the Georgia and southern South Carolina coast. Shear and instability are expected to be greatest in this region with favorable diurnal timing during the afternoon hours Thursday. Most forecast soundings in this region show STP values around 1 with some guidance peaking around 2.5 for a few hours. In addition, most CAM guidance shows one or more well developed convective bands in the vicinity of this most favorable environment Thursday afternoon. ....Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... A fast-moving surface low will move across the Upper-Midwest on Thursday. Unseasonably high low-level moisture will be in place across the warm sector (low to mid 60s F dewpoints). As the upper trough advances east, convection is expected to develop along and ahead of the cold front across the eastern Plains into the Upper-Midwest by early afternoon as convective temperatures are met. Mid level lapse rates should limit overall storm intensity. However, storms will be developing within a moderately strong wind field with a ~45 knot low-level jet. Therefore, some severe wind gusts may be possible with these storms, particularly those along the front whose updraft will be supported by the frontal convergence. Additionally, strong low-level speed shear may support a brief tornado threat, but this threat should be mitigated by veered surface flow and weak lapse rates. The duration of the severe weather threat will be limited by the narrow warm sector. Due to the fast storm motion, most storms will likely move east of the best low-level moisture by 22-23Z and quickly face their demise. ...Bentley.. 11/09/2022 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .