Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Nov 09 2022 08:33:04 FOUS30 KWBC 090833 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 332 AM EST Wed Nov 09 2022 Day 1 Valid 12Z Wed Nov 09 2022 - 12Z Thu Nov 10 2022 ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ....Florida Peninsula... Nicole, likely as a hurricane, will move into the Treasure Coast of the Florida Peninsula Wednesday night. Along and north of the track of the hurricane, deep tropical rains are expected over a large swatch of the Florida Peninsula. Unsurprisingly, Nicole brings PWATs well over 2 inches and over 3 standard deviations above normal to the state. The highest rainfall amounts will be in the area primarily between Cape Canaveral and Lake Okeechobee, which was an area pretty hard hit by Hurricane Ian. That said, what's reducing the flooding threat is the increasingly fast movement of Nicole, the track of which continues to shift north and west. While this will spread the heavier rain potential over a larger area (particularly on Thursday and Friday), it reduces the amounts any one area will see. Discussion was had with the impacted forecast offices overnight with upgrading to a Moderate risk over east central Florida, but for the reasons discussed above, it was decided the current Slight Risk remains the most appropriate flooding threat level. ....Upper Midwest... Very few changes made to the inherited Marginal Risk from northern MN over to the U.P. of Michigan. There continues to be a very slight northward shift in the model trends, but regardless, the dynamics remain unchanged. A stalled out front will draw anomalous moisture...up to 1.25" PWATs, which is as much as +4 standard deviations above normal for this time of year. CAPE values around 500 J/kg will support at least some convective elements which will all train northeastward along the front across the Marginal Risk area. Much of the area had been wet recently, especially along and just south of Lake Superior so soils are coming in with at least some antecedent moisture. Finally, convection ongoing at the time of this writing is continuing to saturate soils in that area.=20 Wegman Day 2 The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z. Day 3 The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z. Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8eusKgWc-pZtCgyu9UHjNxcSMnga2tv0hlN-XTu7flKA= SR1WRY2HZt384AhTw0pojU4PP-a5jgODVwRsQrNtfh79MBU$=20=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8eusKgWc-pZtCgyu9UHjNxcSMnga2tv0hlN-XTu7flKA= SR1WRY2HZt384AhTw0pojU4PP-a5jgODVwRsQrNtt5GMHFc$=20=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8eusKgWc-pZtCgyu9UHjNxcSMnga2tv0hlN-XTu7flKA= SR1WRY2HZt384AhTw0pojU4PP-a5jgODVwRsQrNtMfDaGHA$=20=20 $$ =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .