Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Nov 09 2022 08:31:42 ACUS03 KWNS 090831 SWODY3 SPC AC 090830 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Wed Nov 09 2022 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND FAR SOUTHERN VIRGINIA... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing both tornadoes and damaging winds appear possible Friday across the Carolinas into parts of the Mid-Atlantic. ....Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic... Nicole is forecast to be located over GA at the start of the period Friday morning. The transition to an extratropical cyclone should occur through the period as Nicole accelerates northeastward across the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic ahead of an approaching upper trough. A rather moist low-level airmass should be in place ahead of the surface low across SC/NC and parts of VA, with upper 60s to perhaps low 70s dewpoints common. Most guidance indicates that sufficient daytime heating will occur across these areas through Friday afternoon, which should aid in modest boundary-layer destabilization. 30-40+ kt of deep-layer shear and plentiful low-level shear associated with a 50-60+ kt southerly low-level jet will provide ample support for updraft organization and low-level rotation. Current expectations are for low-topped supercells to be ongoing Friday morning across parts of SC into southern NC. A threat for tornadoes and damaging winds will likely spread northward across the Carolinas into southern VA through Friday evening with this activity. There is somewhat less confidence in sufficient instability being realized with northward extent into the Mid-Atlantic, although guidance does suggest that mid 60s surface dewpoints will advance northward in a strong low-level warm advection regime. Have therefore included low severe probabilities as far north as MD/DC/DE into southern PA and NJ, where at least an isolated threat for severe/damaging winds and perhaps a tornado may continue Friday evening/night. ....South-Central into Deep South Texas... Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across parts of central TX along/near a cold front. The southern portion of a large-scale upper trough is forecast to move eastward over south TX on Friday. A surface cold front should also develop southward over this region through the period. Although low-level flow is expected to remain weak, strong deep-layer shear should be present, owing to the enhanced mid/upper-level westerly winds at the base of the upper trough. Any thunderstorms that can develop along or just ahead of the cold front may pose an isolated threat for both large hail and damaging winds, as they spread generally east-southeastward through Friday evening. ...Gleason.. 11/09/2022 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .