Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Nov 09 2022 05:54:07

ACUS01 KWNS 090553
SWODY1
SPC AC 090552

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 PM CST Tue Nov 08 2022

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

....SUMMARY...
A tornado threat is expected to develop this afternoon and persist
through tonight across parts of the eastern Florida Peninsula.

....Florida Peninsula...
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Tropical Storm Nicole
to strengthen into a hurricane and approach the eastern Florida
Peninsula today. The hurricane is expected to make landfall just to
the north of the Palm Beach vicinity. By this afternoon, the
northern quadrant of the hurricane will begin to move inland across
the eastern Florida Peninsula. As the center of the hurricane
approaches the Florida east coast, 0-1 km shear will steadily
increase from about 30 knots at 18Z to about 40 knots by 03Z this
evening. In response, the tornado threat will gradually increase
during the afternoon and evening. Rotating cells that move into the
coastal sections will likely be associated with a tornado threat.
The tornado threat is expected to be maximized inland within 50
statute miles of the coast, where instability will be maximized and
frictional affects will be favorable for mesocyclone development. As
Hurricane Nicole moves across the Florida Peninsula tonight, the
tornado threat will continue across the northeast quadrant of the
system. A strong tornado will be possible with the more intense
supercells, with the greatest threat during the late evening and
overnight period.

....Southern Nebraska...
A cold front will move into the central Plains this evening as a
surface low develops across south-central Nebraska. Instability is
forecast to increase ahead of the front as low-level moisture
advects northward. During the overnight period, convection will
likely develop along the front and move eastward across southern
Nebraska. The stronger winds are forecast to be ahead of the front
and not co-located with the convection, suggesting that a severe
threat is likely to be mitigated.

...Broyles/Thornton.. 11/09/2022

$$

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