Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Nov 09 2022 00:59:33

ACUS01 KWNS 090059
SWODY1
SPC AC 090058

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 PM CST Tue Nov 08 2022

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated marginally severe winds and a brief tornado are possible in
parts of southern California this evening.

....Southern California...
An upper-level low, near the coast of northern California, will move
inland this evening as an associated trough approaches the southern
and central California coast. At the surface, a cold front just
offshore will move inland this evening. Ahead of the front, surface
dewpoints in southern and central California near the coast were
generally in the lower 50s to near 60 F. This was contributing to a
weakly unstable airmass. Within this airmass, low-topped showers
have developed in the vicinity of Los Angeles, where a band of
strong large-scale ascent is located. Large-scale ascent drops off
southward toward San Diego, which has resulted in more widely
scattered convection there.

On the southern side of the upper-level system, the nose of a 75 to
90 knot mid-level jet was moving into north-central California.
Strong flow was also present southward across central and southern
California, where the RAP was estimating 0-6 km shear generally in
the 80 to 100 knot range. Some areas to the north of Los Angeles had
0-6 km shear as high as 120 knots. The very strong deep-layer shear
should be enough for isolated cell rotation and perhaps a brief
tornado. The most favorable area for a brief spinup would be across
the Inland Empire to the south and east of Los Angeles, with cells
embedded in a southwest-to-northeast band of ongoing convection. A
marginal wind-damage threat could also accompany any cells that
briefly intensify.

...Broyles.. 11/09/2022

$$

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