Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Nov 08 2022 19:44:02

ACUS01 KWNS 081943
SWODY1
SPC AC 081942

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 PM CST Tue Nov 08 2022

Valid 082000Z - 091200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated gusty/damaging wind gusts and/or a brief tornado are
possible in parts of southern California this afternoon and evening.

....20Z Update...

....Coastal Southern California...
Forecast outlined in the previous discussion (appended below) and
MCD #1928 remains valid. A low-probability threat for damaging gusts
and perhaps a brief tornado is still expected as a frontal band
moves onto the southern CA coast this afternoon and evening.

...Mosier.. 11/08/2022

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Tue Nov 08 2022/

....Los Angeles Basin...
A large upper trough is in place today across the western US.
Multiple weak cold fronts are sweeping eastward from the offshore
waters onto coastal CA today, with one noted currently over the LA
Basin, and another approaching Point Conception.  This second wave
is expected to move into the LA Basin around peak heating this
afternoon, accompanied with a narrow line of showers and low-topped
thunderstorms.  Forecast soundings suggest 300-500 J/kg of CAPE
ahead of the front, along with very strong low/mid level winds.
Orographic effects may result in local backing of the near-surface
winds over the LA Basin, enhancing convergence and aiding in a
localized risk of a few damaging wind gusts or perhaps a brief
tornado.  Therefore have added low wind and tornado probabilities
for this area - mainly during the 21-03z period.

$$

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