Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1928
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Nov 08 2022 17:37:31

ACUS11 KWNS 081737
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081736=20
CAZ000-082000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1928
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 AM CST Tue Nov 08 2022

Areas affected...portions of coastal Southern California.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 081736Z - 082000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Shoreward moving bands of low-topped convection may pose
an isolated risk for strong/damaging wind gusts and or a brief
tornado through the early afternoon. A weather watch is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...Morning water-vapor imagery showed a well-developed
upper trough and strong cyclonically curved jet streak moving
onshore across portions of the West Coast. A cold front and
convergence band associated with the main upper wave are forecast to
move toward the near coast supporting a couple of bands of
low-topped convection through the morning and early afternoon. Moist
onshore flow will allow for weak destabilization in the lowest few
kilometers with forecast soundings showing 300-500 J/kg of MUCAPE
ahead of the front. Very strong low/mid level wind fields will also
be present with 0-6 km bulk shear of 60-70 kt favorable for storm
organization into a QLCS. Orographic convergence may result in
backing of the near-surface winds over the LA Basin and near shore
aiding in a localized risk of a few strong/damaging wind gusts or
perhaps a brief tornado over the next few hours. Given very limited
buoyancy and uncertainty with storm coverage, a weather watch is not
expected.

...Lyons/Hart.. 11/08/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6xMScOUISsczsf44HWw96xUIjdUaeQqyEJq5eeRsy7HmTSPv0CPeeca_1lk3EkD01SAwzoB16=
AmMNdKgYjj65nEH60I$   for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGX...HNX...LOX...

LAT...LON   34922068 34891904 34621766 34001718 33591722 33321744
            33561804 33831888 33941939 33911981 33922022 33992062
            34272084 34712093 34922068=20


=3D =3D =3D
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