Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Nov 08 2022 17:26:32 ACUS02 KWNS 081726 SWODY2 SPC AC 081724 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Tue Nov 08 2022 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ....SUMMARY... A couple tornadoes appear possible mainly Wednesday evening/night into early Thursday morning across parts of the Florida Peninsula. ....Florida... Tropical Cyclone Nicole will likely be centered just east of the northern Bahamas early Wednesday morning. Expectations is that this cyclone will make steady westward progress throughout the day and overnight, reaching the coast late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. Northwesterly flow will strengthen through the day as the system approaches. However, thermodynamics throughout the western periphery of the system are expected to remain unfavorable for deep convection, limiting the overall severe potential throughout the day. An increased severe potential is anticipated later Wednesday evening into Thursday morning as greater low-level moisture attendant to the center of the cyclone moves into the coastal areas. This increase in moisture/buoyancy may result in few strong, more sustained updrafts and the potential for a tornado or two. Primary threat area is currently expected to extend from the Lake Okeechobee vicinity to south of Jacksonville Wednesday evening through Thursday morning. ....Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... Showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the Upper Midwest early Wednesday amid a warm-air advection regime fostered by an expansive low-level jet over the Plains. Strong vertical shear will be in place but poor lapse rates and modest buoyancy should keep the severe potential limited. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated over the central High Plains throughout the day as a strong shortwave trough pivots through the deep mean troughing over the western CONUS. Resultant surface low is then forecast move northeastward across NE and through the Mid MO Valley overnight. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated along and north of a sharpening warm front associated with low, primarily from western SD across MN. Buoyancy will be slightly better than with the early morning storms, so a few storms may become strong enough to produce hail. However, coverage is still expected to remain less than 5%. Shallow convection in also anticipated along the front as it moves across NE and north-central KS early Thursday morning. Depth of the updrafts should be mitigated by warm mid-level temperatures, likely limiting lightning potential. Even so, given the robust low-level flow in place, a few strong, convectively augmented gusts are still possible. ...Mosier.. 11/08/2022 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .