Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Nov 08 2022 14:27:51

AWUS01 KWNH 081427
FFGMPD
CAZ000-082000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1117
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
927 AM EST Tue Nov 08 2022

Areas affected...central California coastal ranges

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081425Z - 082000Z

Summary...A landfalling atmospheric river will continue to provide
localized areas of 0.25-0.5 inch/hr rainfall rates.  Localized
areas of excessive runoff are expected in this regime.

Discussion...Peak moisture flux and lift continues to focus in
areas between San Francisco and Monterrey this morning due to
strong southwesterly low-level flow on the southern periphery of a
stout mid/upper trough located approximately 150 miles offshore.
The combination of orographic lift along coastal ranges and
0.7-0.9 PW values were contributing to persistent rainfall, with
rates peaking at around 0.25-0.5 inch/hr along a general axis from
Monterrey through San Jose to Sacramento.  This axis of rainfall
is falling in areas of locally sensitive ground conditions due to
burn scars.  Minor flooding has been reported this morning in a
few areas, and the ongoing scenario supports a continuation of
this flash flood risk in the short term.

Through 20Z, the axis of greatest rainfall will gradually shift
southward along the central California coastline in tandem with
the axis of greatest low-level/orographic convergence and lift.=20
Local areas of 0.5 inch/hr rain rates will continue - especially
where convective enhancement can occur near the coastline.  A few
spots of localized flash flooding are expected with this regime -
especially near sensitive low-lying areas and burn scars.  Areas
near San Luis Obispo/Santa Maria and the northern Santa Lucia
Ranges will eventually experience heavier rainfall beginning at
around 17-18Z or so.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8LeSZ8escYJ459InX3cpwtbjdRLihJ-iGbIW7EY1pR6DHyJMh3hPiP2sDpbgu8tNxgbv=
v0XOPjiFAFWE8MBQtg4Pogo$   for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...MTR...STO...

ATTN...RFC...CNRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37932182 37832114 36992049 35852003 34772003=20
            34432038 34672069 35952162 36422194 37082209=20
            37082209 37612211 37632211=20

=3D =3D =3D
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