Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Nov 08 2022 12:54:58

ACUS01 KWNS 081254
SWODY1
SPC AC 081253

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 AM CST Tue Nov 08 2022

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the continental
U.S. today and tonight.

....Synopsis/Discussion...
In mid/upper levels, a complex cold-core cyclone is centered just
off the WA coastline, with a vast 500-mb closed circulation covering
much of the nearby Pacific Ocean, Pacific Northwest, and
southwestern Canada.  The cyclone will shift/redevelop southward
today as a new mean center forms near Cape Mendocino by 00Z, and an
intense shortwave trough/speed max pivots through the proximal
southern semicircle west of southern CA.  By 12Z, the 500-mb low
should be near the NV/OR border, while the strong shortwave trough
moves across southern CA.  With this eastward turn in the cyclone
and associated mid/upper trough, height falls will spread across the
Rockies, Great Plains, and much of the Upper Midwest from this
afternoon/evening through 12Z tomorrow.

The large western cyclone/trough will influence the bulk of
thunderstorm potential over the CONUS through:
1.  Strong cooling and steep low/middle-level lapse rates over parts
of CA and the Great Basin, intermixed with at least marginal
low/middle-level moisture.  This should support development of
pockets of weak CAPE into icing layers suitable for lightning
production.
2.  A broad, strengthening plume of low-level warm advection and
moisture advection/transport over the central CONUS.  Within that
regime, isentropic ascent of increasingly moist parcels to LFC will
support mesoscale swaths of elevated convection, with isolated to
widely scattered embedded thunderstorms.

Isolated thunder also may occur over parts of deep south TX ahead of
a weak, cutoff mid/upper low evident in moisture-channel imagery
over the Gulf, and across portions of FL as the large circulation of
what now is STS Nicole approaches.  Based on the latest NHC
forecasts for size and placement of Nicole, the most favorable
buoyancy/shear parameter space for supercells and tornado potential
is not expected to move onshore until late Thursday night (day 2).

...Edwards/Smith.. 11/08/2022

$$

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