Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Nov 08 2022 09:57:28

ACUS48 KWNS 080957
SWOD48
SPC AC 080955

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CST Tue Nov 08 2022

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Nicole is forecast by the NHC to move northeastward from GA to the
Mid-Atlantic on Day 4/Friday while becoming extratropical. An upper
trough over the central states should continue eastward in this time
frame as well. Rich low-level moisture should advance northward
ahead of Nicole across the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic Friday
afternoon/evening, and perhaps as far north as New England by Friday
night. An isolated severe threat may develop across these regions on
Friday wherever sufficient instability can be realized, as both
low-level and deep-layer shear are forecast to be quite strong.
Still, weak instability may be a limiting factor, so a 15% severe
area has not been introduced at this time.

Once a cold front clears the East Coast early on Day 5/Saturday,
organized severe thunderstorm potential across the CONUS appears
quite low through the rest of the forecast period, owing to a lack
of low-level moisture and appreciable instability.

...Gleason.. 11/08/2022

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