Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Nov 08 2022 08:29:28 ACUS03 KWNS 080829 SWODY3 SPC AC 080828 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Tue Nov 08 2022 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ....SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms may occur Thursday across portions of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. A few tornadoes also appear possible over parts of Florida into coastal Georgia and the Carolinas. ....Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough embedded within large-scale upper troughing over the western/central CONUS should eject northeastward across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. A related surface low should likewise develop quickly northeastward across these regions through the day. Shallow low-level moisture associated with a partially modified Gulf airmass is forecast to advance northward across these regions ahead of the surface low and attendant cold front. Most guidance has trended faster with the progression of the shortwave trough and related surface features, which has shifted the better potential for severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon a bit farther east. Both low-level and deep-layer shear appear quite strong with this system, which should act to organize any thunderstorms that can develop along or just ahead of the cold front through the day. The main limiting factor appears to be the weak instability forecast, owing to modest daytime heating and a lack of richer low-level moisture. Still, there should be a narrow corridor within the warm sector Thursday afternoon that will support at least isolated severe convection, with both damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes possible. The warm/moist sector is forecast to quickly get pinched off with eastward extent into MO/IA/WI Thursday evening, and thunderstorms should quickly weaken as they race eastward in this time frame. ....Florida into Georgia and the Carolinas... Nicole is forecast by the NHC to be located over the central FL Peninsula Thursday morning. This system should begin to curve northward and eventually northeastward through the period as a large-scale upper trough over the western/central CONUS advances eastward. A tight surface pressure gradient should be in place between Nicole and high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic. A corresponding enlarged low-level wind field is anticipated on the north through east side of Nicole on Thursday, extending well away from the center of circulation. These enhanced low-level east-southeasterly winds will advect rich low-level moisture inland across coastal GA/SC/NC through the period. Weak instability should develop as modest diurnal heating occurs across these areas. Strong low-level shear will support a risk for a few tornadoes wherever sufficient instability exists to support low-topped, surface-based supercells. With some continued track uncertainty, have included a fairly broad area of low severe probabilities from northeast/east-central FL into southern/coastal GA, SC, and far southern NC. These areas appear to have the best chance for weak instability to overlap with strong low-level shear. Greater tornado probabilities may be needed once confidence in the track and convective structure increases. ...Gleason.. 11/08/2022 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .