Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Nov 08 2022 06:01:56 ACUS02 KWNS 080601 SWODY2 SPC AC 080600 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Nov 08 2022 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ....SUMMARY... A couple tornadoes appear possible mainly Wednesday evening/night across parts of the Florida Peninsula. ....Florida Peninsula... Latest forecast from the NHC indicates that subtropical cyclone Nicole will approach and eventually move over parts of the FL Peninsula Wednesday through Wednesday night. Strengthening east- northeasterly low-level winds are forecast to spread across much of the FL Peninsula as Nicole approaches. Gradually increasing low-level moisture from the Gulf Stream/Atlantic and modest destabilization are also forecast to occur through the day, although mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain quite poor. The favorable kinematic environment coupled with weak but sufficient instability should support a threat for a couple of tornadoes with any low-topped supercells that can develop across this region. Based on the latest NHC forecast track, the best time frame for this to occur appears to be mainly Wednesday evening through the end of Day 2 period early Thursday morning as 0-1 km SRH quickly increases. At this point, there is not enough confidence in a more focused corridor of tornado potential to include greater severe probabilities. ....Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... Weak, elevated thunderstorms aided largely by a southwesterly low-level jet should be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. This activity should move east-northeastward into Canada and weaken further through the day. As a large-scale upper trough/low ejects over the western CONUS, additional convective development driven by low-level warm advection with a strengthening southerly low-level jet should occur Wednesday evening/night over portions of the northern and central Plains into the Upper Midwest. This activity will likely occur well to the north of a surface front and remain elevated. Although deep-layer shear will be strong, forecast MUCAPE still appears insufficient to support a threat for large hail with these thunderstorms. Some high-resolution guidance hints at shallow convective development along a surging cold front across NE and perhaps north-central KS very late in the period (mainly 08-12Z). The environment along and ahead of the front appears conditionally favorable for surface-based thunderstorms. But, the lack of surface heating should tend to limit the threat for severe wind gusts until at least a few hours after sunrise Thursday morning (into the Day 3 period). ...Gleason.. 11/08/2022 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .