Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Nov 07 2022 21:43:11

AWUS01 KWNH 072143
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-080200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1114
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
441 PM EST Mon Nov 07 2022

Areas affected...Parts of North-Central TX and Far Southern OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 072140Z - 080200Z

SUMMARY...Locally slow-moving clusters of heavy showers and
thunderstorms may produce some flash flooding concerns heading
into the evening hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a couple of clusters
of slow-moving showers and thunderstorms across north-central TX,
and especially the northeast side of the Dallas-Fort Worth
metropolitan area that are producing very heavy rainfall rates.
This especially involves parts of Collin, Hunt, Van Zandt and
Rains counties where MRMS has been showing some rainfall rates
reaching upwards of 2 to 2.5 inches/hour.

This activity should lift gradually northward heading into the
early evening hours, but may tend to locally broaden a bit in
coverage across adjacent areas of north-central TX and far
southern OK. There is presence of a weak inverted surface trough
helping to favor some stronger surface moisture convergence, and
the airmass is rather unstable with MLCAPE values of 1500+ j/kg.
PWs are on the order of 1.5 to 1.7 inches and helping to
contribute to these enhanced rainfall rates.

Some additional persistence and backbuilding of these cells may
occur heading through 00Z, and the 18Z HREF guidance suggests
there may be some carryover of the activity going into the
mid-evening time frame given the presence of a broader warm air
advection pattern over the region. Some localized rainfall amounts
of 3 to 4 inches will be possible through mid-evening with
isolated heavier amounts where any cells locally concentrate.

Given the high rainfall rates, and urbanized areas, there may be
some isolated flash flooding concerns over the next few hours
before the activity wanes later this evening.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-hOKABxd59rVKfAmDuJ44DgcaJfPUg6XqpyPbFEZcwq3XxnrUqfBcCoUU8v6PIqmRm_l=
5x989MdyuO-dnxewE-OGmEE$   for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34239623 33939558 33419535 32889554 32599616=20
            32539711 32809767 33419780 34029718=20

=3D =3D =3D
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