Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Nov 07 2022 17:20:51 ACUS02 KWNS 071720 SWODY2 SPC AC 071719 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CST Mon Nov 07 2022 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Tuesday. ....California/Nevada... An upper trough/low will progress slowly eastward over the western CONUS on Tuesday. A strong mid-level jet and associated large-scale ascent should aid convective development across parts of CA/NV through the period. Instability is forecast to remain limited and convection is expected to be low-topped beneath a warm layer located around 7-10 kft, but isolated lightning flashes will be possible across the region. Low/mid-level winds will be fairly strong across parts of central/southern CA into southern NV, but very weak instability (MUCAPE 300 J/kg or less) should limit the threat for more robust convection. Nevertheless, forecast hodographs indicate some rotation will be possible in showers/isolated thunderstorms, especially as they move onshore the southern/central CA coast. Gusty winds may accompany any more robust convection that can develop, but overall severe potential is expected to remain low. ....Southern Plains Vicinity... Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Tuesday morning in a low-level warm advection regime. Southerly low-level flow will bring Gulf moisture northward across the southern Plains though the period, though only modest boundary-layer dewpoints are expected with westward extent into the southern High Plains. Deep layer shear will be favorable for organized convection. However, severe potential appears rather limited/conditional given nebulous forcing for ascent (with neutral to slightly rising heights), and a low-level inversion limiting surface-based convective potential. Some small hail could accompany the strongest cells across OK, but convective initiation further west into parts of western TX/eastern NM is questionable. Severe probabilities are not expected at this time given the low-end and conditional nature of the threat. ....Upper Midwest Vicinity... An upper ridge will be oriented over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes early Tuesday. As the upper trough shifts east over the western states, a weak shortwave impulse is forecast to migrate across the northern Plains and shift the upper ridge eastward into Quebec and the northeast U.S. Modest height falls/large-scale ascent, and increasing midlevel moisture will support the development of showers and isolated elevated thunderstorms. However, instability will remain limited and severe potential is expected to remain low. ...Leitman.. 11/07/2022 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .