Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Nov 07 2022 12:35:31 ACUS01 KWNS 071235 SWODY1 SPC AC 071234 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0634 AM CST Mon Nov 07 2022 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight. ....Synopsis/Discussion... With Subtropical Storm Nicole's expansive wind field and circulation still well east of FL, the major deep-tropospheric feature for this forecast period is a complex cyclone centered just off the Pacific Northwest coastline. This is a substantial synoptic-scale circulation dominating a large-scale western trough. Its cyclonic- flow field covers much of the northeastern Pacific from offshore BC to northern Baja, and the CONUS inland to the Rockies, and will continue to do so as the mean center of the gyre moves slowly southward off WA and OR. Very cold midlevel temperatures (i.e., 500-mb temperatures -30 to -35 C) will overlie the Pacific marine layer with sufficiently steep low/middle-level lapse rates and boundary-layer moisture to support shallow cumulonimbi and isolated, sporadic lightning near the coast. Elsewhere, the early stages of a broad warm/moist-advection regime are underway across the southern Plains and Mid-South region, mostly above the surface. Associated isentropic ascent to LFC, and weak but sufficiently vertically positioned buoyancy for sporadic lightning the last few hours over parts of the Mid-South and mid/ upper Texas Coastal Plain. A few more hours of thunder potential appears to exist before the central/northern Great Plains LLJ broadens and strengthens, leading to low-level speed divergence across the area from TX to the Mid-South, and concordant reduction in thunder risk. However, a late-night increase in elevated warm advection and moisture farther north across parts of the Red River region and most of OK may lead to another area of poorly organized convection, within which forecast soundings suggest buoyancy characterized by low CAPE density, but sufficient depth to support some thunder potential. ...Edwards/Smitb.. 11/07/2022 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .