Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Nov 07 2022 09:59:54

ACUS48 KWNS 070959
SWOD48
SPC AC 070958

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CST Mon Nov 07 2022

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is a good agreement that an upper trough/low
will eject northeastward across the northern/central Plains on Day
4/Thursday. A related surface low should likewise develop
northeastward across the central Plains into the Upper Midwest by
Thursday evening. A fairly narrow corridor of modest low-level
moisture should be present ahead of the surface low and attendant
cold front. Daytime heating and cool temperatures aloft are forecast
to support the development of weak instability through the day from
eastern KS/NE into northwestern MO, western/central IA, and far
southern MN. A pronounced mid-level jet and strong south-
southwesterly flow associated with a low-level jet will foster ample
low-level and deep-layer shear to support organized severe
thunderstorms Thursday afternoon/evening, including the potential
for supercells. Even with some concerns about instability, there is
enough of a convective precipitation signal in guidance across this
region to introduce a 15% severe delineation for Day 4/Thursday.

A separate severe risk may also exist across parts of FL and along
parts of the East Coast from Day 4/Thursday through at least Day
5/Friday in association with newly named Subtropical Storm Nicole.
Any appreciable risk for tornadoes will be dependent on the track of
this system, which remains highly uncertain at this extended time
frame. Accordingly, 15% severe areas have not been included at this
time, but at least low severe probabilities may be needed in a later
outlook.

...Gleason.. 11/07/2022

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