Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Nov 07 2022 08:29:03

ACUS03 KWNS 070828
SWODY3
SPC AC 070828

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Mon Nov 07 2022

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

....SUMMARY...
At least a low chance for tornadoes may exist Wednesday across parts
of the Florida Peninsula.

....Florida Peninsula...
NHC is forecasting a high likelihood of sub-tropical/tropical
cyclone development over the southwestern Atlantic/Bahamas vicinity
in the next 48 hours. Although some differences exist in model
guidance regarding the track/evolution of this cyclone, there is
general agreement that a westward motion will bring it towards/over
the FL Peninsula at some point on Wednesday. Strengthening low-level
wind fields, coupled with increasing low-level moisture from the
Gulf Stream/Atlantic and modest destabilization, are forecast to
occur across parts of the FL Peninsula through the period. This
favorable environment should support some threat for tornadoes with
any low-topped supercells that can develop across this region
Wednesday into Wednesday night. Primary uncertainty remains where
the best overlap of weak instability and strong shear will occur,
which is related to the cyclone track. Have therefore opted to
include a fairly broad area of low severe probabilities for now.

....Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
Generally weak, elevated thunderstorms driven largely by a
southwesterly low-level jet may be ongoing Wednesday morning across
parts of the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. This activity
should generally shift east-northeastward and weaken further through
the day. Additional convective development driven by low-level warm
advection should occur Wednesday evening/night over portions of the
northern and central Plains into the Upper Midwest, as a large-scale
upper trough/low ejects over the western CONUS. Most guidance
indicates this convection will be elevated and occur well to the
north of a surface front. Although deep-layer shear will be strong,
forecast instability currently appears inadequate to support a
threat for large hail with this activity.

...Gleason.. 11/07/2022

$$

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