Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Nov 07 2022 06:01:39 ACUS02 KWNS 070601 SWODY2 SPC AC 070600 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Mon Nov 07 2022 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Tuesday. ....California/Nevada... A pronounced upper trough/low will make slow eastward progress over the western CONUS on Tuesday. A strong mid-level jet attendant to this feature and associated large-scale ascent should aid convective development across parts of CA/NV through the period. Even though instability is forecast to remain quite limited, some of this low-topped convection may reach sufficient height to support charge separation and isolated lighting flashes. Low/mid-level winds are also expected to be quite strong across parts of central/southern CA into southern NV, but at this point instability is forecast to remain quite weak (MUCAPE 300 J/kg or less), which should limit the threat for more robust convection. ....Southern High Plains... Isolated thunderstorms will probably be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday morning across parts of the southern Plains in association with a modest low-level warm advection regime. Low-level moisture should continue to advance northward across the Plains through the day, with more modest return occurring farther west across the southern High Plains. A conditionally favorable environment for severe should develop across this region by Tuesday afternoon, as mid-level lapse rates steepen and deep-layer shear gradually strengthens ahead of the approaching upper trough. But, large-scale forcing should remain nebulous/weak, with a low-level inversion probably inhibiting convective initiation. At this point, the severe threat appears too conditional to include any probabilities. ....Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... By Tuesday night, increasing ascent attendant to a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet may support convective development across parts of eastern SD into MN and vicinity. This activity will likely remain elevated, and some uncertainty remains regarding how much instability will be available to these thunderstorms. Still, most guidance suggests that MUCAPE will generally remain less than 1000 J/kg, which should be a little too marginal to support a meaningful threat for hail. ...Gleason.. 11/07/2022 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .