Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Nov 07 2022 05:35:25

ACUS01 KWNS 070535
SWODY1
SPC AC 070533

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 PM CST Sun Nov 06 2022

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely today.

....Synopsis...
A large-scale upper trough will amplify over the western U.S. with a
broad belt of southwest flow aloft across the Rockies and into the
northern Plains. Meanwhile, heights will rise from the southern
Plains into the Southeast with an upper ridge centered over the
lower MS Valley.

Daytime heating beneath cold temperatures aloft will result in
scattered showers and a few afternoon thunderstorms from northern CA
into western OR, with MLCAPE generally below 200 J/kg supporting
non-severe, low-topped convection. Low-level shear will increase
across the central valleys overnight with 850 mb winds over 40 kt,
but little to no SBCAPE is forecast.

To the east, modest moistening will occur across TX and OK with weak
east to southeast boundary-layer winds. While the surface pattern
across the Plains and East will be dominated by high pressure, areas
of heating may support spotty showers and a few lightning flashes
over parts of central and northern TX. Any convection will be
disorganized and weak, with little focus and only marginal
instability.

...Jewell/Thornton.. 11/07/2022

$$

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