Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Nov 06 2022 19:43:05 ACUS01 KWNS 061942 SWODY1 SPC AC 061941 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Sun Nov 06 2022 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Northeast, Southeast, Texas to Mid-South overnight, and across the Pacific Northwest. ....20Z Update... Forecast outlined in the previous outlook remains valid with no changes needed. See previous discussion below for more forecast details. ...Mosier.. 11/06/2022 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Sun Nov 06 2022/ ....Synopsis... Mid-morning upper air analyses and surface observations show a weak/diffuse cool front draped from the lower Great Lakes southwestward into the Southeast. An onshore flow regime along the Atlantic coast will continue to advect mid to upper 60s dewpoints into the southeastern Appalachians and Northeast through the afternoon. Thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon and evening across these regions along the diffuse boundary. Cold temperatures aloft/steep mid-level lapse rates associated with a strong upper wave approaching the Pacific Northwest have yielded sporadic lightning flashes over the northeast Pacific over the past several hours. These thermodynamic conditions will overspread the WA/OR coasts over the next 24 hours. A lightning flash or two east of the Cascades will be possible overnight, but the better lightning potential will reside west of the terrain. ....Northeast... Regional radar mosaics reveal low-topped convection developing over parts of northern NY. Despite poor low and mid-level lapse rates, modified 12 UTC soundings from BUF and ALB suggest that temperatures in the low 70s with upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints are adequate for weak surface-based convection. The poor thermodynamic environment aloft coupled with broken cloud cover will limit the degree of diurnal destabilization, but enough buoyancy may be present for a few lightning flashes as isolated/scattered convective cells develop along the diffuse boundary. This activity will likely mix down 30-40 knot low-level winds, and may lead to sporadic strong to damaging gusts. However, given low confidence in robust destabilization, the severe potential remains too low to introduce wind probabilities. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .