Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Nov 06 2022 08:53:54 ACUS48 KWNS 060853 SWOD48 SPC AC 060852 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CST Sun Nov 06 2022 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ....DISCUSSION... Latest deterministic model guidance has trended considerably slower with the ejection of an upper trough/low across the western and central CONUS from Day 4/Wednesday into Day 5/Thursday. If current timing trends hold, then it appears probable that robust convection will develop Wednesday evening/night across parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest as a strong southerly low-level jet develops. Given increasing deep-layer shear across this region as the upper trough approaches, some of these thunderstorms may become strong to severe. There is still too much uncertainty regarding forecast instability to introduce a 15% area, but low severe probabilities may need to be included in a later outlook. The upper trough/low is forecast to continue advancing east- northeastward across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest on Day 5/Thursday. Low-level moisture will continue to advect northward across these regions ahead of this upper trough/low and related surface cyclone. Even though instability is forecast to remain limited, strong low/mid-level winds and deep-layer shear will probably act to organize thunderstorms that can develop along or ahead of a cold front that will sweep quickly eastward Thursday afternoon/evening. If current model trends hold, then inclusion of severe probabilities will need to be considered across parts of the Upper Midwest for Day 5/Thursday. A separate severe threat may evolve from Day 4/Wednesday through at least Day 6/Friday across parts of the East Coast in association with possible sub-tropical/tropical cyclone development. See NHC forecasts for the latest information regarding this potential development. There is still far too much uncertainty regarding this feature's track and evolution to include a 15% delineation. Still, based on latest guidance, a low tornado threat may begin to impact parts of the FL Peninsula around Day 4/Wednesday into Day 5/Thursday. ...Gleason.. 11/06/2022 = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .