Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Nov 06 2022 08:31:06 FOUS30 KWBC 060831 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 330 AM EST Sun Nov 06 2022 Day 1 Valid 12Z Sun Nov 06 2022 - 12Z Mon Nov 07 2022 ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS COASTAL OREGON AND NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA... ....Coastal OR and Northwest CA... A large and energetic vertically-stacked low centered along the coast of British Columbia this morning will begin digging south to Washington State through Sunday night. Plenty of upper level energy associated with a 160 kt northerly jet streak will bring several shortwaves around the base of the low, which will direct plenty of Pacific moisture into coastal southern OR and northwestern CA today. This area has gotten some rainfall the past week, though not nearly as much as areas further north into Washington State. Thus, the flooding threat is diminished a bit than if this rainfall were directed into Washington. Nonetheless, the models have been trending wetter with totals in the 2 to 4 inch range expected through Monday morning. Low and falling snow levels will diminish the impact of this precipitation since higher elevation precipitation will be in the form of snow, hence the Marginal Risk area remains confined to the coast and the adjacent ranges. Rain occurring over burn scars, particularly in northwest California, will pose the greatest chance of isolated flash flooding. The previous Marginal Risk is unchanged for this forecast update. ....Western Carolinas... Few changes to the weather pattern across the Carolinas today. Easterly flow upsloping into the Blue Ridge will locally enhance rainfall rates through the area ahead of an approaching cold front. Antecedent dry conditions and generally light hourly rainfall rates will preclude any flooding concerns. Wegman Day 2 The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z. Day 3 The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z. Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_dtWYbvwE7tPA-cC1dHE1Hs-gc3MFvzpwBIlx-lzAdUU= uh1UQeQuCXu7VqvgsUlgVYJc4icH_87xRY9IW8uQ3LU964o$=20=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_dtWYbvwE7tPA-cC1dHE1Hs-gc3MFvzpwBIlx-lzAdUU= uh1UQeQuCXu7VqvgsUlgVYJc4icH_87xRY9IW8uQHY4PoF0$=20=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_dtWYbvwE7tPA-cC1dHE1Hs-gc3MFvzpwBIlx-lzAdUU= uh1UQeQuCXu7VqvgsUlgVYJc4icH_87xRY9IW8uQUWIknC0$=20=20 $$ =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .