Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Nov 06 2022 08:06:21 ACUS03 KWNS 060806 SWODY3 SPC AC 060805 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CST Sun Nov 06 2022 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Tuesday. ....Synopsis... An amplified upper trough should continue to make slow eastward progress across the western CONUS on Tuesday. Similar to prior days, low-topped convection may produce isolated lightning flashes across parts of CA into NV given strong large-scale ascent, cold mid-level temperatures, and meager buoyancy forecast. Farther east, isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing Tuesday morning across parts of the southern/central Plains. This activity will likely remain elevated, and tied to low-level warm advection. Guidance generally shows low-level moisture advancing northward across parts of the southern/central Plains and eventually Upper Midwest ahead of a surface lee cyclone. There is still some disagreement in guidance with the quality and northward extent of low-level moisture return late in the period. In addition, weak large-scale forcing aloft across the Plains and some capping should tend to limit surface-based thunderstorms across much of the warm sector through the day. ....Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... By Tuesday night, increasing ascent attendant to a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet may support convective development across parts of eastern SD into southern MN and vicinity. This activity will probably remain elevated, and considerable uncertainty remains regarding the degree of MUCAPE that will be available to these thunderstorms. Have opted to hold off on including any severe probabilities for now given this uncertainty. But, low probabilities for mainly hail may eventually be needed if the more aggressive forecast scenario regarding low-level moisture return and related instability occurs. ...Gleason.. 11/06/2022 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .