Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Nov 06 2022 05:22:24

ACUS01 KWNS 060522
SWODY1
SPC AC 060521

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 AM CDT Sun Nov 06 2022

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
General thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Northeast, and
across the Pacific Northwest.

....Synopsis...
Strong west to southwest flow aloft will extend from the western
states across the northern Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast as
upper ridging occurs over the Gulf Coast and southeastern states. A
leading wave will rapidly lift northeastward out of the northern
Plains/Upper Great Lakes, with intense midlevel jet streak nosing
into southwest Ontario and southern Quebec. A surface high will
extend from the Mid Atlantic to the Gulf Coast states, limiting
moisture quality to the north.

Elsewhere, very cold temperatures aloft will overspread the Pacific
Northwest as an upper low drops south just offshore. Daytime heating
along with steep lapse rates will result in scattered low-topped
convection, translating south from coastal WA into OR and northern
CA through 00Z. Cold temperatures may favor graupel in some of the
cells.

....Northeast...
Neutral height tendencies will exist during the day, with gradual
falls overnight as the upper wave passes to the north. During the
day, southerly winds will maintain 55-60 F dewpoints, which when
combined with daytime heating will result in MLCAPE around 250 J/kg.
Veering low-level winds will result in minimal convergence to focus
storm development. However, sporadic/disorganized convection may
form across parts of PA, NY, and VT during the afternoon. Given lack
of lift and poor lapse rates/visually thin CAPE profiles, storms are
expected to remain sub-severe despite strong shear/long hodographs.
A few cells producing small hail or gusty winds cannot be ruled out.

...Jewell/Thornton.. 11/06/2022

$$

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