Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Nov 05 2022 16:19:48

ACUS01 KWNS 051619
SWODY1
SPC AC 051618

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CDT Sat Nov 05 2022

Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected from parts
of the Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes.  Organized severe-thunderstorm
potential appears minimal.

A cold front currently extends from WI/IL southward into MS.  Weak
instability exists ahead of the line - mainly from the OH valley
southward to the Gulf Coast.  This area may continue to see
scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.  While an
isolated damaging wind gust or two cannot be ruled out over southern
MS/AL this afternoon, no organized severe thunderstorms are
expected.

Farther north, a narrow line of low-topped showers extends along the
front from northern IL into WI.  Very strong surface winds in the
warm sector ahead of the front, and within showers associated with
the front, will produce gusty and occasionally damaging winds.
Since very little lightning is anticipated with this activity and
the intensity of winds in the line is not significantly stronger
than the regional gradient flow out ahead, will not introduce severe
probabilities at this time.  Refer to MCD#1927 for further details.

...Hart/Moore.. 11/05/2022

$$

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