Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1927
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Nov 05 2022 14:51:30

ACUS11 KWNS 051451
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051451=20
INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-051645-

Mesoscale Discussion 1927
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0951 AM CDT Sat Nov 05 2022

Areas affected...Northern Illinois into southern Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 051451Z - 051645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A shallow squall line moving across northern Illinois and
into southern Wisconsin may be capable of strong wind gusts/sporadic
wind damage through the late morning hours.

DISCUSSION...A shallow convective line moving across eastern IA and
central IL has had a history of strong wind gusts largely between
40-50 mph (with a single 59 mph gust near Peoria, IL) over the past
couple of hours. The 12 UTC ILX and DVN soundings show poor lapse
rates through the column with shallow buoyancy below 500 mb. This
buoyancy is too shallow/weak to support robust, deep updrafts with
lightning, but is adequate for shallow convective showers given the
very strong forcing for ascent over the region via upper-level
difluence and broad ascent ahead of an approaching vorticity maximum
over northeast MO. Strong low-level flow sampled in the 12 UTC
soundings and regional VWPs will likely continue to be mechanically
mixed to the surface as the narrow band continues east/northeast
towards Lake Michigan. 40-50 mph southerly gradient winds are being
observed ahead of the line across northern IL, but a few stronger
gusts are expected within the line. Buoyancy will continue to be
limited through the remainder of the morning given extensive cloud
cover and poor lapse rates, which should mitigate a further
escalation of the overall severe threat.

...Moore/Hart.. 11/05/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6Gy7v7AygoEnGr8hCZC1fp4jHOLzDhvcqByCkfN9MJwdnv5JgVdZEYhkKu_w9WXIWuoWrudAc=
oqpgIqrhYoh_mavfL8$   for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...

LAT...LON   39678942 40848954 41859033 42549075 42929061 43188965
            43258863 43098792 42748770 42248777 41978761 41698742
            41018748 40418775 39928844 39618910 39678942=20


=3D =3D =3D
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