Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1926
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Nov 05 2022 05:45:11

ACUS11 KWNS 050545
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050544=20
ARZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-050645-

Mesoscale Discussion 1926
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CDT Sat Nov 05 2022

Areas affected...eastern AR...northern LA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 563...

Valid 050544Z - 050645Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 563 continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage and perhaps a brief/weak tornado will
remain possible as a squall line moves eastward across eastern AR
and northern LA over the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows an extensive squall line from
northeast AR south-southwestward into north-central LA as of 1240am
CDT.  Surface analysis indicates the low-level moisture plume
featuring rich moisture becomes increasingly pinched from a
west-east standpoint with northward extent in southeast AR.  The
orientation of the squall line is most favorable for wind-damage
potential across the I-40 corridor in eastern AR where the kinematic
fields are impressively strong.  However, buoyancy becomes
increasingly marginal within this corridor per slightly cooler
surface temperatures and dewpoints (near 70 deg with lower 60s
dewpoints) compared to farther south over far southeast AR/northern
LA where temperatures and dewpoints are appreciably higher.  Given
the ongoing squall line's eastward progression over the next couple
of hours, expecting the wind-damage risk to gradually move east and
slowly lessen with time as it moves to the MS River.

...Smith.. 11/05/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5BikvKyu5DET_53moYzpB3QJEBxNkP-ecmY8eg3uj9FFabnZCgyHtBJOCC2n8JEcIDwKHaphX=
zOkcqF3cpP8cbcHnVE$   for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   31759280 35569106 35769062 35529022 34479052 33919098
            32329176 31689229 31759280=20


=3D =3D =3D
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