Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Nov 05 2022 04:52:32

ACUS01 KWNS 050452
SWODY1
SPC AC 050451

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CDT Fri Nov 04 2022

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI AND VICINITY...

....SUMMARY...
A few marginally severe thunderstorms are possible mainly Saturday
morning across parts of the central Gulf Coast states. Occasional
damaging winds should be the main threat.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
An intense shortwave trough will eject quickly northeastward from
the lower MO/Mid MS Valleys to the upper Great Lakes during the day,
with a surface low moving from eastern IA across WI and into Upper
MI through 00Z. A cold front will trail south from the low, with an
expansive area of precipitation from IN into LA at 12Z Saturday.

The strongest storms will coincide with a plume of 70 F dewpoints
from LA into southern MS early in the day. A severe gust or two may
occur through midday, but both lift and instability will become
limited with time.

Farther north across the OH Valley and MI, latest model output
suggests little instability will be present to support
thunderstorms. Shallow convection may occur along a weakening
front/convergence zone across IN and OH, and into Lower MI closer to
the low, but forecast soundings indicate maximum convective tops of
just 8000 to 10000 ft. Given the meager instability, very little
precipitation is anticipated, which would limit the downward
transfer of momentum. As such, severe weather is not forecast given
latest model trends.

...Jewell/Thornton.. 11/05/2022

$$

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