Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Nov 05 2022 04:36:17

AWUS01 KWNH 050436
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-050900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1113
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1235 AM EDT Sat Nov 05 2022

Areas affected...Far Southeast TX...Southwest to Central LA...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050435Z - 050900Z

SUMMARY...Narrow window of training and high-efficiency rates
posing narrow bands of 3"+ and possible localized flash flooding
concerns.

DISCUSSION...Deeper southerly flow ahead of the main cold front
has allowed for a band of pre-frontal stronger cells with weak
rotation to align for north-northeast tracking.  This has allowed
for short-term training, but the nose of stronger descending cold
advection behind the fast approaching cold front is resulting in a
very strong, early 150 degrees and 15-20kts on both sides of the
boundary through a region of low to mid-70s Tds and ample unstable
boundary layer moisture to result in very strong to extreme
moisture flux convergence.  Cells have already been in the 2"/hr
range, but may allow for short-term uptick toward 2-3"/hr rates
and sub-hourly totals over 2" in spots along the central TX/LA
border region. Very high FFG values, especially given very dry
upper layers of soil, may limit infiltration and  result in
localized flash flooding conditions.

Deeper surface moisture exists with some locations of 75+ Tds
along the Gulf coast and should help to maintain very efficient
rainfall processes for any remaining cells along the cold front.=20
However, as height-falls and CAA begin to dominate and over-run
the remaining narrowing warm sector; southeastward forward
propagation should take over and limit duration at any given point
with similar sub-hourly to hourly rainfall total up to 2-2.5"
through 08z, reducing flash flooding risk to solely urban or
highly prone locations.

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!40iUc9127iu-vUcJXjZnQOtOqsE_xevzV0MUcXm3_ON8w4vbR5oJGUg6oH2O1nSY1jDT=
uYhOrPzsm3QhhgZYjhUtSXU$   for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...JAN...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   32169329 32109195 31609159 31039183 30609224=20
            29969339 29619478 30779487 31709416=20

=3D =3D =3D
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