Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1925
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Nov 05 2022 02:49:03

ACUS11 KWNS 050248
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050248=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-050445-

Mesoscale Discussion 1925
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0948 PM CDT Fri Nov 04 2022

Areas affected...much of northeastern Arkansas into southeastern
Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 050248Z - 050445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...At least some risk for tornadoes and/or locally damaging
wind gusts may continue with the organized convective system as it
spreads toward the Mississippi River through Midnight-2 AM CDT.=20
However, it is not certain that a new severe weather watch will be
needed east of the ongoing watches.

DISCUSSION...Convection has gradually grown upscale into an
organizing convective system with embedded mesocyclones and several
larger evolving lower/mid tropospheric cyclonic circulations.=20
Activity is closely aligned with the 50+ kt southerly 850 mb jet
core (where low-level hodographs are maximized), which is forecast
to intensify further while shifting north-northeastward toward the
Mississippi Valley through 05-07Z, as a surface frontal low deepens
across southwest through central Missouri.  However, as this occurs,
the Rapid Refresh suggests that a trailing southeastward surging
cold front will increasingly cut off the the northward return of
warm/moist air from the Gulf of Mexico.  As inflow into the
convective system becomes progressively less unstable to stable, the
risk for tornadoes and/or localized damaging wind gusts will
gradually diminish as convection spreads east of Tornado Watch 561
and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 562.  However, it may not become
completely negligible for another several hours.

...Kerr/Guyer.. 11/05/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6-Z6tLc7MFuRctZhoSNSh7OvSP993tKh1ZqBJ7Zg_WNOsY9BjYqNL9j_92wpWkMjGNh5jYHcB=
vRKo3JI5C7oIXQKYH4$   for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   35169245 36639220 37599185 38129074 37639011 35989019
            34819075 34289116 34449204 35169245=20


=3D =3D =3D
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