Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1924
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Nov 05 2022 02:21:09

ACUS11 KWNS 050221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050220=20
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-050415-

Mesoscale Discussion 1924
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0920 PM CDT Fri Nov 04 2022

Areas affected...Parts of northern Louisiana into southeastern
Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 050220Z - 050415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Potential for supercells capable of producing tornadoes
may increase across parts of the Ark-La-Miss vicinity by around
Midnight CDT, where a new tornado watch probably will be needed.

DISCUSSION...A modest surface frontal wave has reached southwestern
Missouri, and may begin undergo more substantive deepening is it
progresses north-northeastward across the Missouri Ozarks/lower
Missouri Valley through 05-07Z.  As this occurs, the primary
trailing cold front is forecast to surge south-southeastward across
the Ark-La-Tex, toward the lower Mississippi Valley, and the plume
of northward returning warm/moist air off the Gulf of Mexico will
gradually become cut-off.

Within the next few hours, higher boundary-layer moisture content
will increasingly become confined to a narrowing pre-frontal
corridor across the Louisiana Gulf Coast.  The Rapid Refresh
suggests that this may extend across northeastern Louisiana into
southeastern Arkansas, where low-level hodographs likely will remain
clockwise curved and enlarged, near the southern periphery of 50 kt
southerly 850 mb flow (and the tighter mid-level height gradient
associated with the short wave trough pivoting northeastward into
the south central Great Plains).  This may become the primary focus
for any continuing discrete tornadic supercell development by
Midnight CDT.

...Kerr/Guyer.. 11/05/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7Fwk0d8aOOUxBuT2ZupvyjVxQFMhvcDjKuD_C0v-Zyl4fDb4c4dr1ghu7InsY6JF-pA6pnJmD=
ga6i4Xdz_6zPiP1heU$   for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   33579271 34159167 33479077 32239164 31929246 32269325
            33579271=20


=3D =3D =3D
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