Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1923
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Nov 05 2022 01:43:49

ACUS11 KWNS 050143
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050143=20
ARZ000-050245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1923
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0843 PM CDT Fri Nov 04 2022

Areas affected...western and central Arkansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 562...

Valid 050143Z - 050245Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 562 continues.

SUMMARY...Tornado risk continues across western/central Arkansas.
Damaging wind risk increasing as storm mode becomes linear.

DISCUSSION...Surface objective analysis shows a nose of increasing
MLCAPE values around 500-1000 J/kg moving into central Arkansas. The
VAD profile from Little Rock shows backed surface winds with a
curved hodograph, which will further support downstream tornado
threat over the next couple of hours. In the last hour, storm mode
has transitioned to become more linear with embedded mesovorticies
developing within the line of storms. Strong winds (around 60-65
kts) are being sampled just above ground from the Ft Smith radar
indicative of the increasing low level jet axis extending across
western Arkansas. The VAD profile from Ft. Smith shows the hodograph
has become elongated/linear supporting a more linear storm mode.
Damaging wind potential will increase across central Arkansas as
this line advances east. Embedded QLCS tornadoes will continue to be
possible.

...Thornton/Guyer.. 11/05/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_ZBN9767QixFk98YVFvh_FmWVOKspjhyxhdX7pbqxv2Lbl8HmIiaFfyXEiPk58mQ-mGX3TLWf=
JXKGXK9AbKbCFhdA-Y$   for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   36049355 36369321 36369283 36289224 35949214 35519214
            35029230 34559263 34229294 34159338 34219405 34429436
            34679433 35219417 35619391 36049355=20


=3D =3D =3D
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