Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Nov 05 2022 00:31:01

ACUS01 KWNS 050030
SWODY1
SPC AC 050029

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0729 PM CDT Fri Nov 04 2022

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

....THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
THE ARKLATEX REGION...

....SUMMARY...
The threat of tornadoes, some intense, continues across the ArkLaTex
region this evening. Otherwise, a broad zone of severe wind
potential exists from southern Missouri into eastern Texas and
across Louisiana tonight.

....ArkLaTex Region...
Several tornadic supercells persist this evening in a batch of
storms just ahead of a cold front, extending from northeast TX into
southwest AR. Surface analysis indicates 1-2 mb/hr pressure falls
here, along with dewpoints increasing to around 70 F. 0-1 SRH values
of 300-400 m2/s2 are common per VWPs, which when combined with
MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg will continue to support strong tornadoes
with these leading cells. For more information, see mesoscale
discussion 1922.

With time, the cold front will merge with this activity, and a QLCS
will be possible, with continued threat of damaging winds and brief
tornadoes within the line.

Elsewhere, additional pre-frontal storms cannot be ruled out farther
south toward eastern TX/western LA this evening, where shear
profiles will also remain favorable for supercells, though weaker
than farther north. Severe gusts may eventually make it into western
MS into Saturday morning as the front surges east. In these areas,
deep-layer shear will be nearly parallel to the boundary, with
undercutting outflow.

...Jewell.. 11/05/2022

$$

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