Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1921
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Nov 04 2022 23:27:10

ACUS11 KWNS 042327
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042326=20
TXZ000-050130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1921
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0626 PM CDT Fri Nov 04 2022

Areas affected...south central/southern Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 042326Z - 050130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may gradually develop across the region
through 8-9 PM CDT.  The evolution of isolated supercell structures
posing a risk for severe hail and locally strong gusts appears
briefly possible, before a cold frontal passage weakens storms later
this evening.  It is not clear a severe weather watch will be
needed, but trends are being monitored.

DISCUSSION...Mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg appears
to have developed in a narrow corridor along a slow moving dryline
across south central Texas, with deepening convective development
evident near/north of San Antonio into the Austin vicinity.=20
Although stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent downstream of the
vigorous  short wave trough, now beginning to pivot northeast of the
Texas South Plain, will generally continue to pass to the northeast
of the region, associated mid-level cooling is weakening mid-level
inhibition east of the Hill Country.=20=20

Based on current trends and model output, at least isolated vigorous
thunderstorm development appears possible within the next hour or
two.  Although low-level wind fields are tending to veer and weaken,
deep-layer shear beneath 50+ kt southwesterly mid-level flow is
strong and supportive of supercells which could pose a risk for
severe hail and wind.  However, this risk may remain relatively
isolated and short-lived, as a pair of cold fronts quickly advance
southeastward toward the Texas coastal plain through 03-04Z, and
tend to undercut the convective development.

...Kerr/Guyer.. 11/04/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4lc5uyuV_mGv2YREJJkhmi0nBgTBQF20cxR9rwRk5Dj-hy3EMOvIEtCTq4aSjzny2BuzzaYde=
zLJZlK5CP1xfgyG1Ug$   for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   29399842 30109804 30399761 29739685 29089696 28539750
            28569827 29399842=20


=3D =3D =3D
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