Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1920
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Nov 04 2022 22:13:56

ACUS11 KWNS 042213
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042213=20
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-042345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1920
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0513 PM CDT Fri Nov 04 2022

Areas affected...eastern Texas and western Arkansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 560...

Valid 042213Z - 042345Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 560 continues.

SUMMARY...Tornado threat will continue across portions of northeast
Texas into western Arkansas and far northeastern Louisiana.
Downstream watch issuance is needed soon.

DISCUSSION...Radar trends continue to show rotating cells from
Choctaw to Limestone County in Texas. A confirmed tornado has been
reported  in Choctaw County. The most favorable corridor for
supercells continues to be along the axis of surface moisture
convergence within the warm sector where dewpoints are in the 70s F
with MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg. Shear profiles are highly
favorable within this region with curved hodographs and VAD profiles
at Fort Smith and Ft. Worth showing deep layer shear around 40 kts.
This threat will continue to translate downstream to the north and
east  through the evening with the risk for long lived supercells
and potential for tornadoes, a few of which may be strong.

...Thornton/Guyer.. 11/04/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7_n9G6ssagvIpVNK-s8jG1xKLSQaoBttdZDWMlhiUWjzsgfJgZob6fsAF9HH4D5iAkO71FFZ-=
7hQ05TO2zaUi-ksgzI$   for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33969566 34569534 35029518 35169470 35249400 35309354
            35189322 35009309 34759317 34549323 34069333 33599361
            32979404 32289442 31949491 31929548 31979591 32429628
            32669642 32749647 32869646 33379624 33709588 33969566=20


=3D =3D =3D
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